Showing posts with label schweikert. Show all posts
Showing posts with label schweikert. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Hey, I Got Mine: Foreclosure Dave Doubles Down on Ending Medicare


Video: GOP Rep. Schweikert on Paul Ryan's Budget: ‘We Need to Redouble… Own This, Make the Case’
Shortly after abruptly cancelling scheduled "listening sessions" with his constituents to attend Tea Party fundraisers, freshman congressman David “Foreclosure” Schweikert managed to find himself in front of a TV camera with a very familiar message.

Regular readers will know that “do as I say not as I do” is essentially the Arizona congressman’s position on everything. From border security and healthcare to transparency and austerity, David expects a lot more from you than he is willing to give. To him, any sort of government healthcare program is un-American, that is unless it involves the millionaire real estate vulture receiving taxpayer-funded care for his own family. Then it’s just all part of the benefit package, right Dave? Schweikert says we can’t have immigration reform until the border is secured, but then voted to defund the border patrol. He advocates that we balance the budget on the backs of the elderly, but defends subsidies to the most profitable industry ever as only “a couple billion dollars.” (Would those billions pay for the emergency relief for Missouri that his caucus is holding hostage?) He says government ought to be completely transparent, but voted to hide his government healthcare from his constituents. See a pattern? All government is bad… unless he and his corporate backers directly benefit. Then it’s just a few billion dollars and job benefits, nothing more! Convenient, that.

In his latest edition of “I’m not even embarrassed”, David asks his colleagues to have the political courage to meet with their constituents to explain why the wholesale elimination of our nation’s most popular government program would be actually be a good thing for the millions of seniors who depend on it to survive. “No, you can’t have healthcare grandma. You see, the nation just can’t afford you anymore. But please, pay no attention to the few billion in oil subsidies behind the curtain. That’s chump change!” David urges everyone else taking heat to stand their ground in the face of fierce opposition all the while he hides away at friendly political fundraisers and in front of DC television cameras.

Congressman, when will you meet with your district to sell us on your vote? At your last “listening session”, you deflected questions on Medicare, saying that part of the discussion would come later (it never did). Instead we just talked about the deficit, and how it’s all really Planned Parenthood and the EPA’s fault. How was that politically courageous?

We can have policy disagreements. Debate is what made America great, but disingenuous politicians have brought it to its knees. If every time we turn on the TV, Arizonans see you talking the talk, how long must we wait before you walk the walk?

Oh, but nice dog.


Update: ADP is ahead of the game.

Friday, January 7, 2011

David Schweikert: Hypocrite; Socialist


Guess what millionaire is getting taxpayer funded healthcare

It seems that government health insurance is tyranny only until David Schweikert benefits. Now that Foreclosure Dave is a member of Congress (AZ05), the multi-millionaire real estate mogul vulture has apparently changed his tune. It turns out David really wants his government healthcare. That’s right, David “I made $15 million off the housing bubble” Schweikert wants his “taxpayer hand-out”.

Schweikert’s hypocrisy is especially glaring when you consider that several Tea Party members of Congress showed the courage of their convictions and declined their taxpayer subsidized coverage. Schweikert did not. Perhaps David’s colleagues saw the hypocrisy in pledging to repeal healthcare protections for the rest of us, while signing up for their own “unconstitutional” coverage. Perhaps they thought it would be in bad taste to take other people’s money for their own benefit while screaming socialism as loud as they could. Whatever their reason is, some Tea Partiers walked the walk, while Schweikert quickly retreated. He didn’t even pretend to try, just the opposite in fact. Schweikert voted yesterday to keep his government healthcare a secret from his constituents, contradicting his campaign call for a more-transparent Congress.

It’s not like Schweikert’s economic circumstances were forcing to sign on to the Federal-employee plan, so don't try it. He owns his own business, he has 400 "investment properties", he is very rich, and as a congressmen, he will earn $175,000/yr. As wealthy as he is, Dave could easily find an individual plan out in the free market like the rest of us who aren’t Congressmen must do. Instead, “Do as I say, not as I do” Schweikert opted for the plan that includes taxpayer subsidies because it was cheaper for him, and more expensive for the taxpayer. Your loss, his gain, too bad for you, you should have been a congressman. This is how these guys think, operate, and govern.

Naturally, there are crickets to be heard on the local right-wing blogs. No word on whether they are the same crickets used during the Bush years, but their song remains the same.

Friday, October 29, 2010

Schweikert: The Fiscal Conservative That Never Was


David Schweikert (pictured), the Tea Party candidate who made himself rich after his irresponsible friends on Wall Street pushed the global economy to a precipice, loves to talk about his credentials as a fiscal conservative. According to Schweikert’s 2010 campaign website, the federal government “continues to spend money it doesn’t have and wastes billions of our tax dollars every year on questionable spending. The complete lack of fiscal responsibility coming out of Congress needs to stop.” He points to his record as a fiscal conservative his “entire career” and says it is possible for government to spend your tax dollars frugally, but, unfortunately, most of those in government don’t want to do that.

Foreclosure Dave Seen Here Closing on Another "Investment Property"

So long press release short, he's against earmarks, all earmarks! He claims that less then 1% of the federal budget will bankrupt us all, not that $7 trillion his boy President Bush added to the national debt in a mere 8 years. (During which Schweikert was silent.) Forget the $3 trillion unnecessary war, Medicare Part D, and the tax cuts for people making over a $1 million that were all unpaid for, that’s small potatoes. Nevermind that it’s the job of a congressman to steer federal resources to their state for the benefit of their constituents, Foreclosure Dave has national talking points to hit. Earmarks, Obama, Pelosi, Reid, lap dogs, unions, and ummm… socialism, that’s what’s really important in this election, right Dave?

Okay, while Scrooge McDuck’s David Schweikert’s positions may be shortsighted and incredibly stupid (haven’t you ever read Ayn Rand?), they could represent a legitimate ideological difference. It is possible that like libertarians, his beliefs are so strong that he is willing to ignore the reality around him in seeking there justification. (Hell, he is even willing to ignore the job description of the office he is running for.) Some would call his resolve principled, and for someone else beside Schweikert that may be so. The only problem is, David loves to spend federal and state money, and always has.

In 2008, Schweikert told The Arizona Republic he had a zero-tolerance policy on Congressional earmarks. He has said congressmen should “not even accept a cup of coffee” from lobbyists. “The pork-barrel spending and the corrupting influence that earmarks bring must be ended”. David didn’t mention that during time as a state representative he co-sponsored a bill to urge the Governor to create a state office in D.C. for lobbyist to seek “federal appropriations and grants”. The office would have cost Arizona taxpayers $200,000 annually. [SB 1073, introduced 3/03/94]

David forgets that in the same year as he sought to create an Arizona funded office for lobbyists, he sponsored a measure to ask the President of the United States to seek a Congressional earmark for “the purpose of paying for the operation, maintenance and replacement costs associated with the Central Arizona Project water, including costs accrued and associated with federal allocations which may not be in use.” (CAP is a canal that runs through the middle of Phoenix that provides a majority of Maricopa County’s water and has fueled its explosive growth.) The measure cited as grievances the fact that Arizonans rely on and pay for the Central Arizona Project and “a substantial quantity of water” made available through the project “has been allocated to various uses by the United States federal government.” [HCM 2005, 2/28/94]

Don’t get me wrong, the CAP was a great project and very much worthy of federal funding, but the reality of David’s advocacy for it and his campaign rhetoric couldn’t be further apart. Completely in character I’d say.

There are plenty of other examples of David's disingenuousness (and outright lies) when it comes to his position on spending taxpayer money. Even before his get-federal-money-for-local-public-works extravaganza, David was well used to doling out other people's money. In 1992, The Arizona Capitol Times reported that Schweikert voted in favor of appropriations bills 72.7 percent – opposing them only 27.3 percent. [Arizona Capitol Times, 6/24/92]

In 1994, Schweikert co-sponsored a bill adding Arizona State University’s East Campus to the list of facilities to be provided for in a $2 million appropriation from the state general fund. Now, David wants to get rid of public schools all together. That’s quite a shift from one political environment to another, no?

David sought federal money for Arizona’s “outdoor recreation facilities, improving conditions for fish and wildlife, and delivery of water to Arizona Indian communities.” The same state services he now wants to privatize. And why not? Privatization of state responsibilities has worked out so well for Arizona, ask Jan Brewer; just not the two people who died when a murderer literally walked out of a private prison, literally. [HCM 2005, 2/28/94]

Can you believe perennial candidate David Schweikert’s double talk gets worse? In 1991, Foreclosure Dave voted in favor of a bill to appropriate more than $18 million from the state general fund and more than $173 million from other funds for building renewal and capital projects. [HB 2350, 6/21/91] That’s a lot of money; at least it is to those who didn’t make millions exploiting other people’s misfortune.

Looks like David’s record of fiscal conservatism isn’t quite as solid as he likes to claim. Indeed, it’s built on a foundation of sand propped up by national talking points and meaningless slogans. No doubt the Chamber of Commerce had this in mind when they endorsed Democrat Harry Mitchell.

David’s 180 degree turn is no surprise really. This is the guy who tried and failed to implicate Harry Mitchell in unethical real estate speculation after he himself preyed on over 400 Arizona families so could get his “investment properties”. This is the guy who is the darling of the Arizona right-wing fringe, but he just had John McCain cut an ad endorsing him. If “This is my house now” Schweikert wasn’t an unabashed hypocrite he wouldn’t be a Tea Party hero.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Schweikert Releases Internal Poll That Didn’t Include Libertarian Nick Coons, Showing a Lead of Only 2


It’s been a long fall for Republican Tea Party candidate David “Foreclosure” Schweikert. Only a month ago folks like frenemy of the blog Rachel Alexander were touting Schweikert’s internals showing him up by double digits as proof of Harry Mitchell’s impending demise. Now, in the wake of three polls over three weeks showing Mitchell in the lead, David is getting worried.

Today, the Schweikert campaign released an internal poll showing “My House Now” Dave leading by only two, well within the margin of error. What the folks in the Schweikert camp hope people won’t notice is their poll doesn’t include Libertarian candidate Nick Coons. Coons will be on the ballot, and when he is included in the survey, he consistently captures 6% of the right wing vote.

For some reason the poll includes a generic party only ballot in AZ-05 which has the Republican leading by 13. Not only do I believe this is irrelevant, but it is also misleading. David Schweikert only has support from 69% Republicans. In comparison Congress Mitchell is well known to enjoy the support of many AZ-05 Republicans and 88% of Democrats in the district. There is anti-Democratic mood nationwide, but that doesn’t mean that will translate into a negative for the famously independent Mitchell.

The Schweikert campaign has been stagnating for weeks as Arizona voters have grown tired of his national platitudes and hyperbolic characterizations. Schweikert is more interested in who or who isn’t a “lap dog”, than he is the struggling Arizonans he wants to represent.

As for the folks pushing the Harry is polling under 50% and thus doomed meme, 538's Nate Silver has a reality check for you.

Bottom line: Even Schweikert’s skewed internals show a big swing in Congressman Mitchell’s direction. No matter how folks try to spin it, leading by double digits and falling to within the margin of error is bad news for Foreclosure Dave.

Monday, October 11, 2010

Yet Another Poll Shows Mitchell on Top


Over the course of the last few weeks, poll after poll has shown Harry Mitchell leading “Foreclosure Dave” Schweikert in the AZ-05 race, but they were still in the poll’s margin of error. Today that changed, and today my schadenfreude abounds. This is great news that once again shows a clear trajectory for Congressman Mitchell – up.

Via DCCC
Mitchell Leads Schweikert by 7 in New AZ-05 Poll

A new Benenson Strategy Group poll shows Representative Harry Mitchell leading Republican challenger David Schweikert by 7 percent. Mitchell leads Schweikert 46 percent to 39 percent. Conducted October 5-7, the poll surveyed 400 likely voters and has a 4.9 perce

Friday, October 8, 2010

Schweikert's Base of “Angry Voters” Turns out to be his Pocketbook


David Schweikert likes to portray of himself as the CD5 standard bearer for the Republican Tea Party. While crusading yet again to rid the Congress of people he calls ‘lap dogs', he often refers to the support he is receiving from ‘the people of Arizona’ (that is, the people whose houses he didn’t buy during the housing crisis). For weeks the Arizona right-wing blogosphere has been pushing this meme of an abandoned Harry Mitchell running out campaign cash as David surges with increasingly popular support. By touting their “fundraising” efforts, Schweikert and Co are trying to foster a feeling of inevitable defeat among Harry’s supporters. Unfortunately for Schweikert, numbers (as they often do) lead us to the truth, and reaffirm that reports of Harry’s certain defeat are greatly exaggerated.


As you can see, Harry is beating Schweikert by 3-to-1 margin in individual donor contributions, and as a result has three times the cash on hand. This is the popular wave David likes to brag about? The sad truth is almost half of David’s $668,361 reported to the FEC as of today came from a single donation of $300,000 from none other than the millionaire Schweikert. David, as you know made himself rich at the expense of middle class families facing foreclosure, but still that’s no small pocket change even for a guy whose company owns 400 families’ homes “investment properties.” If Harry is so unpopular, then why is he absolutely killing Schweikert among donations from actual constituents?

In a recent Arizona Republic story, the perennial candidate Schweikert boasted that his campaign had raised more money than the Mitchell campaign this quarter (by a mere $11,000), which he attributed to Arizona’s anger at Nancy Pelosi, and her “lap dog” Congressman Mitchell.

What David doesn’t say is he recently borrowed a total $225,000 against three of his “investment properties”. Here is just one example, but you can find more here.

Cropped for Size

How much of that $500,000 is the $225,000 from David’s loans and not the “angry” voters of Arizona? FEC reports have to be filed by October 15th. I look forward to taking a peek at David “this is my house now” Schweikert’s filing.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

National Education Association Spotlights Schweikert's Extreme Positions


To win in a Republican Tea Party primary these days, you can’t support public education. To the average teahadist, if little Johnny wants to go to school, well then he better have rich parents. Otherwise, he will have to hit the mines to pay his own way. Knowledge ain’t free little guy, so get back to work! Can’t afford college? Too bad leach, financial aid is tyranny! The AZ CD-05 Republican Tea Party nominee David “Foreclosure” Schweikert is no exception.

As regular readers will know, the Arizona public education system is on life support thanks in part to a robbery-gone-bad orchestrated by our very own (unelected) Governor Brewer. I’m not so sure how deeply advocating to dismantle the Department of Education will resonate with the famously independent voters of AZ CD-05, but I know that it won’t be a net win for Foreclosure Dave’s increasingly stagnant campaign.

The National Education Association has noticed Schweikert’s gilded age approach to education. As such, with the day's emails comes the news that the NEA is spending $650,000 in AZ CD-05 to help beat back the education-for-the-rich-only push from Schweikert and friends.



Friday, October 1, 2010

In Arizona, Democrats Go On Offense; Republicans Offer Nothing for State


In the two last weeks the Arizona Democratic Party (ADP) and the Goddard campaign have released a series of absolutely blistering ads targeting Governor Brewer’s hypocrisy and ineptitude. The latest one called “Stimulus Jan” was the lead story on our local Fox 10 station last night. That’s right, Fox! Here is their coverage:



Spare me the “Democrats can’t win on the issues” so you make “personal” attacks  regurgitations. (Oh the outrage, the outrage!) Arizona Democrats are running on Arizona’s issues, not national sloganeering. In case you haven’t been paying attention, our state is hurting badly. We are bleeding jobs, tearing each other apart over immigration, and failing our children on every level. Private prisons, our dismal public education, health insurance for kids, and the mess we call our state budget are Arizonans’ concerns.

While Democrats are out talking about things that effect Arizona today, all of the state’s Republicans from Jan Brewer down to the Central Arizona Water Conservation District Board are campaigning with the national GOP template of avoiding the local media and focusing strictly on national issues. (There are several Tea Partiers running for a spot on the CAWCDB, but more on that later.) Guys like David “Foreclosure” Schweikert, Daddy's Little Helper Quayle, and Jessie Kelly are going around calling people “Pelosi’s Lap Dog”, and not even talking about what we could do for Arizona in the short term. As you just saw, Brewer is running against Obama while taking credit for his policies. Only occasionally does our unelected governor talk about her opponent Terry Goddard, and when she does it’s only about national politics! Brewer says she doesn’t have time for the local media, but finds time to go on Fox News every night.

The Arizona Republicans aren’t going effect the direction of the country in the least bit, so why don’t they start focusing on Arizona? After all, didn’t we election them to serve Arizona?

Help Arizona today.

By the way, I loved "saved her bacon". I may have to steal that, Mr. Goddard.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

New Poll: Mitchell Leads by 3; Dominates Among Independents


For the second time in eight days a new poll shows Harry Mitchell with a slight lead over his opponent Foreclosure Dave Schweikert. As I pointed out on the 21st, this points to a clear upward trajectory for Harry.

In more good news for the Mitchell camp, the poll also shows that Mitchell is absolutely killing Schweikert among the ever important of independent voters. I think this is to be expected, independents are turned off by the hyperbolic caricaturing of the famously middle of the road Congressman. I mean actually making fake Harry signs calling himself “Pelosi’s Lap Dog”? Get real. David erred when he thought he could run on only hyper partisan nationalized campaign slogans. Seriously though, “Pelosi’s Lap Dog”, really?

For a perennial candidate, I would have thought Schweikert knew the staunchly independent voters of CD5 better, but I guess not.

Click to enlarge

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

"Mitchell Watch" Takes Notice; Brings Knife to a Gun Fight


Yesterday I posted that I believe David Schweikert has supported the website MitchellTruth.com (called Mitchell Watch) through a long time loyalist and major beneficiary of David’s no-bid contract fiasco, Teri Johnson. I argued that if you simply followed the money, tracked the cover-up efforts of East Valley Web, and considered Schweikert’s history of breaking rules to pad Johnson’s pockets, you would come to the same questions I did. I can't say definitively that David broke the law, but there is certainly a lot that points to his involvement at some level. To put it simply, it stinks - bad.

Well, the folks over at Mitchell Watch (Teri Johnson?) noticed, and promptly fired back. I admit that I expected blowback from Mitchell Watch, but I didn’t expect it to be so weak minded, and to borrow a word from the Bard of Bristol Bay, limp. I took the time to present facts, sources, and navigate the reader through the thought process on which I based my conclusions. The Mitchell Watch response in comparison, is laughable.
“Anyone who Googles the words “Harry” and “Mitchell” will see that this site is ranked in the top five out of 1,230,000 results! In newspaper vernacular that’s translates to “above the fold” or “Second Coming” rankings.”
Your Google keyword rankings are irrelevant to the story, and have nothing to do with the arguments I’ve made. Good job though, I’m sure $16,000 can buy you one hell of a search engine optimization guru. This is the old argumentum ad populum fallacy we see on Fox News almost every day, “we are right because we have better ratings”. The Right's time tested fallacy is just a spin-off of the old evolutionary adage, “might makes right”, which of course is the Republican Party’s platform on its most fundamental level… but I’m getting off topic, so back to matters at hand.
“The site’s privacy is shielded by Domains By Proxy which anyone can purchase (not just by “identity thieves, phishers, email scammers, and hackers”). East Vally [sic] Web offers DBP as part of its services.”
I didn’t say that Domains By Proxy catered ONLY to identity thieves, phishers, email scammers, and hackers, but they do accept them and allow them to operate freely under their protection. I believe most reputable companies go out of their way to make sure these types aren't abusing their services.  I’m sure Mitchell Watch is the sole exception, but what’s that they say about laying with dogs?

Anyway, the post wasn’t about DBP. It was about how East Valley Web registered an anti-Mitchell domain while the Schweikert campaign was giving it fistfuls of money, and if one red cent went to support Mitchell Watch in anyway, then the Schweikert campaign is acting in an unlawful manner, which as I also pointed out, seems to be par for the course.
So keep guessing Dry Heat Democrat, and while you’re digging maybe you’ll throw us a hint as to your true So keep guessing Dry Heat Democrat, and while you’re digging maybe you’ll throw us a hint as to your true identit(ies)?
Back to this, the idea that I’m somehow hiding myself because I don’t list my name, birthday, and social security for all the right wing nut jobs to scrutinize. Mitchell Watch could learn a lot from the writer of their guest opinion yesterday, Rachel Alexander. She easily found out who I was, and posted it on her site for all to see. However, just to end this type of speculation, I’ve added an about me section to the blog, as well as a disclaimer. I wonder if Mitchell Watch will do the same. They currently have one, but it has no type of “about me” information whatsoever.

Monday, September 27, 2010

David Schweikert, Mitchell Truth, and the FEC


David Schweikert has some 'xplaning to do

I believe that David Schweikert may be be in violation of FEC law. While admittedly I cannot prove this instance, it wouldn't be the first time. There is a lot of circumstantial evidence to suggest something shady is going on. I think when it’s all put together it raises some pretty tough questions, and shows at the very least show Schweikert isn’t being candid with the FEC about his campaign’s expenditures.

I have been frequenting the website Mitchelltruth.com (formerly Mitchellwatch.com) quite a bit lately, looking to find out what they’ll come up with next. Most of it is pretty ridiculous.

Inspired by the “Intellectual Conservative’s” sleuthing work done on me, I decided to take a closer look at who was behind MitchellTruth.com, and couldn’t believe what I found. MitchellTruth.com is registered to a very disreputable local company known as Domains By Proxy (DBP). DBP is well known to harbor identity thieves, phishers, email scammers, and hackers. Just google "Domains By Proxy" and you will see a host of warnings about scams and unethical business practices. Essentially, if you want to conduct shady or illegal business on the internet, you go through DBP to hide your real identification.

While the DBP information is intriguing, the really interesting part was who actually registered this website. Mitchelltruth.com was registered through another local company called East Valley Web. This amounts to an unforced error by the Schweikert campaign, and we will soon see why.


The owner of East Valley Web is Teri Johnson, a longtime Schweikert loyalist who has been on David’s payroll in one way or another since 2004. According to FEC reports filed by the Schweikert campaign, David has already paid her company (the same one that registered MitchellTruth.com) $16,000 this cycle. This sum included $555 for registering domain names through East Valley Web to Domains by Proxy. My domain cost $11, so I’m not sure what East Valley Web is spending that $555 on, but it sure the hell wasn’t David10.com. Not to mention a relatively simple website like David10.com wouldn’t cost anywhere near $16,000 – I know, it’s what I do. So why is David giving them so much money?

As mentioned, David has a long history with Teri Johnson and East Valley Web. This is evident by an internal audit which found then Maricopa Country Treasurer David Schweikert gave out no-bid contracts to East Valley Web (among other companies). The audit found that Schweikert was in violation of the County Procurement Code in $70,000 worth of purchases made on behalf of the taxpayers. The Maricopa County Internal Audit of 2009 specifically looked into bid-free money given to (drum roll please) Teri Johnson of “East Valley Web & Graphic Design”! That’s right, David has been caught trying to skirt to the rules to funnel money to East Valley Web before. Shooting par for the Republican course, David Schweikert’s love of the ‘free market’ didn’t last long once in office.

This connection between MitchellTruth.com and Johnson’s company when combined with the exorbitant amount of money paid by David’s campaign to East Valley Web lead me to believe that the Schweikert campaign has at least contributed to the operations of MitchellTruth.com, or possibly is fully funding it with campaign cash. Either Teri Johnson is really ripping her long time friend David off, or she is doing much more than advertised.

This connection is a dangerous one for Schweikert. If his campaign has in any way supported MitchellTruth.com, either directly or through East Valley Web, then he has broken federal election law.

FEC Regulations require that all projects of a candidate committee include the name of the candidate who authorized it. So, all websites being paid for by the Schweikert campaign need to clearly bear David’s name.

Confused? Don’t be, here are some examples of what is acceptable what is not.
For a website sponsored by David Schweikert for Congress running against Harry Mitchell:

HarryMitchell.com -- would be illegal because it does not bear Schweikert’s name.

MitchellTruth.com -- would be illegal because it does not bear Schweikert’s name.

David10.com/MitchellTruth – is legal under FEC rules.

Recap: David Schweikert is paying Teri Johnson’s company East Valley Web a lot of money, that is to say, a lot more than the obvious services she is providing would cost. East Valley Web registered MitchellTruth.com to an infamous company called Domains By Proxy, who specializes in concealing identities, which in my mind smacks of deception. I think this deception is made more likely when you consider Schweikert has a documented history of ignoring county procedure and ethical guidelines to get money flowing in the direction of Teri Johnson. If any of the $16,000 dollars paid to her company, East Valley Web, went to registering that domain, or operating the site, the Schweikert campaign has broken the law.

Again I can’t prove anything, nor do I claim to, but I think this is definitely worth further investigating. I will keep you posted.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

AZ CD-5: Mitchell Reclaims the Lead


Harry is smiling for a reason.

Don’t look now Teahadists, but embattled Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell is edging out two time loser David Schweikert by one point according to a new poll. Sure, one point is one point, and certainly within the margin of error, but given past numbers it shows a clear upward trajectory for Congressman Mitchell. I don’t think the uptick is too surprising, the Mitchell campaign recently hit the airwaves with positive campaign ads touting the Congressman’s independent credentials, his work for America’s veterans, as well as his reputation to reach across the aisle. At the same time, Arizona Democrats are doing their best to inform the voters exactly how Mr. Schweikert made himself millions off the foreclosure crisis.

The Schweikert campaign has been saying for some time that its internal polling shows that they are up by as much as 12 points, but as pointed out here, their internal polling is dubious at best. Not to mention, who would trust anything from Karl Rove anyway? Mr. Schweikert is desperate to tie Congressman Mitchell to the so-called “Obama-Pelosi-Reid agenda”, but as made evident last week by the “Republicans for Harry”, that demonstrably untrue assertion is unlikely to stick.

Could this be national trend? Is the base finally coming home as the Democrats wake up and begin to hit their messaging stride? Is the GOP’s determination to raise taxes on the middle class starting to turn off voters? I think so.

According to a new generic ballot Gallup poll, the Democrats are gaining ground nationally, leading the GOP by one point. Again one point is one point, but given the numbers we were facing, it’s a clear sign of upward momentum.

Lets hope that Congressman Mitchell, as well as the DCCC can keep their momentum up. If they can we might be in for a pleasant surprise.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

David Schweikert Graduates From the Karl Rove School of Polling


A new poll has been generating a lot of buzz in the Arizona conservative blogosphere. At first glance, the poll feels like a punch in the gut to a desert progressive. Harry is down 6 points to the David “I serve children with eviction notices” Schweikert? How can this be? Congress Mitchell is a Tempe (and now, CD-5) establishment and David Schweikert got rich when your neighbor had to move his family into an apartment.

Given that David made his money with the same unfettered greed that caused The Great Recession, how would any voter, left or right, want to hitch their star to that kind of person? When did ruthless profiteering become such a virtue that serving an eviction notice to a child doesn’t end any chances of winning a popular vote – in any district? All this made me wonder if Schweikert run on a platform of beheading puppies on Jan Brewer’s doorstep and STILL win?

No. Random Musings has a great analysis of the poll’s creditability. I won’t touch on the finer points, as he already did a much better job that I could have, I will only suggest you check read his dissection of the results. I would like make a few broader points though.

This poll, like so many, is all about how the question is asked, and to whom. In this case, the questions were stating the Schweikert campaign’s attack lines against Mitchell, and then asking if those attacks made you more of less likely to vote for the Democrat.

Click to Enlarge

This “How bad is Harry” poll asked to a sample set with 70% of the respondents over 50 years old. That’s right 70%, that’s means that people 50+ are overrepresented by at least 20%.


Click to Enlarge

This is Tempe and Scottsdale of all places, so I’m not sure how they found such an old sample. Oh wait, yes I am.

According to the poll, 7% of AZ CD-5 respondents have attended a Tea Party rally. Now, 7% doesn’t sound like a lot, but blow up that number to represent the population of district, and we are talking about 35,000 people attending Tea Party rallies in the East Valley. As someone who often attends Tea Party rallies (for fodder), let me say the largest one I’ve been to had a few hundred people there, and lot of those were bused in from surrounding states to support SB1070. So the idea that 35,000 people in CD-5, or the whole Valley of the Sun for that matter, are attending Tea Party rallies is ridiculous.

Click to Enlarge

Since this poll says 7% have attended a Tea Party rally, and 10% are likely to attended a Tea Party rally, and those numbers don’t translate with reality at all, I can’t believe this poll is anything more than the deceptive polls being put out by hard right candidates nationwide (with the help of Karl Rove).

Monday, August 30, 2010

In AZ CD-5, David Schweikert's Character Already Getting Attention


Just 4 days after winning the Republican primary in AZ CD-5, David Schweikert appears to have turned again to the playbook of dubious self advancement, on both the local and national level. Arizona CD5-er’s know that Schweikert made a large fortune taking advantage of struggling home owners at the height of the mortgage crisis, but during the primary it didn’t really get attention. Now with David under increased scrutiny, this narrative is gaining momentum.

Via Daily Kos:
One of the unheralded sleazeballs of this cycle is David Schweikert, who funds his campaign against Harry Mitchell by yanking the rug out from under struggling home owners.
[…]
David Schweikert has found a way to profit from the instability and misery it brings the residents of Arizona District 5. The banks drag their feet on loan modifications and Schweikert slips in, buying homes at auction and evicting home owners with a scant five days notice, some times even after their modification is in process.
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Renters, perhaps already evicted once due to foreclosure, get a second bomb dropped on them, with dawn deliveries of eviction notices, in one instance being handed to a twelve year old instead of an adult in the house.
David didn’t have the decency to evict people (for his personal profit) to their faces, but rather broke the news to their children? I’ve heard a lot of dirt on David lately, but I hadn’t heard this – say what you will about ruthless capitalism, this type of profiteering is despicable and unusually callous even for a Republican.

This weekend Schweikert made local news when his campaign paid for, and displayed fake campaign signs targeting Democrat incumbent and former Tempe mayor, Harry Mitchell. Traditionally, campaigns like to start off positive, promoting their candidate while keeping the gloves on. Schweikert’s first action as the Republican nominee in CD-5, was to try to paint Harry with a negative national brush. I think this is an early indication that David’s strategy is to win (like how he made his money) ugly.

Local news coverage of the Schweikert’s “technically it’s not illegal” campaign.