Tuesday, September 21, 2010

AZ CD-5: Mitchell Reclaims the Lead


Harry is smiling for a reason.

Don’t look now Teahadists, but embattled Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell is edging out two time loser David Schweikert by one point according to a new poll. Sure, one point is one point, and certainly within the margin of error, but given past numbers it shows a clear upward trajectory for Congressman Mitchell. I don’t think the uptick is too surprising, the Mitchell campaign recently hit the airwaves with positive campaign ads touting the Congressman’s independent credentials, his work for America’s veterans, as well as his reputation to reach across the aisle. At the same time, Arizona Democrats are doing their best to inform the voters exactly how Mr. Schweikert made himself millions off the foreclosure crisis.

The Schweikert campaign has been saying for some time that its internal polling shows that they are up by as much as 12 points, but as pointed out here, their internal polling is dubious at best. Not to mention, who would trust anything from Karl Rove anyway? Mr. Schweikert is desperate to tie Congressman Mitchell to the so-called “Obama-Pelosi-Reid agenda”, but as made evident last week by the “Republicans for Harry”, that demonstrably untrue assertion is unlikely to stick.

Could this be national trend? Is the base finally coming home as the Democrats wake up and begin to hit their messaging stride? Is the GOP’s determination to raise taxes on the middle class starting to turn off voters? I think so.

According to a new generic ballot Gallup poll, the Democrats are gaining ground nationally, leading the GOP by one point. Again one point is one point, but given the numbers we were facing, it’s a clear sign of upward momentum.

Lets hope that Congressman Mitchell, as well as the DCCC can keep their momentum up. If they can we might be in for a pleasant surprise.

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